By opening up religious places for worship now, India risks high community transmission
Some things are better kept for later during a
pandemic. And, public worship is certainly one of them. When
epidemiologists were recently polled in the U.S. on when they would
think of attending religious service, 43% of about 200 respondents said
they would consider that in three months to a year, and an equal number
said not for one year. Their caution on mass religious gatherings, which
do not lend themselves to physical distancing and have a history of
amplifying the COVID-19 pandemic in more than one country, should sober
down governments that are keen to open religious places early in the
unlock phase. Even with online registration, e-passes, distance marking
and use of personal protective equipment by staff, gatherings in
confined spaces go against the grain of infection prevention principles.
It is heartening that some temple boards, churches and Islamic
religious bodies have wisely decided to remain closed. As among the top five virus-affected nations,
India cannot afford to create conditions that lead to mass
transmission. The priority today is to refloat a crippled economy
safely, while postponing all optional activities to a time when there is
better disease control, and prevention and treatment courses are
available. The compulsion to unlock when infections have not peaked has
already placed the onus of remaining safe on people, a significant
section of whom have health vulnerabilities such as diabetes. Going by
ICMR-linked studies, the disease burden for diabetes alone has grown 80%
since 1990, highlighting the enormous risk of virus exposure. Millions
of such citizens now face aggravated community transmission.
After
pursuing a lockdown strategy that had low impact on the infection
curve, but many negative outcomes, India needs to draw up its unlock
priorities carefully. It must show the political will to enforce norms
on public behaviour such as mask wearing and physical distancing. Yet,
the scenes from many cities coming out of lockdown, including hard-hit
ones such as Mumbai, show anxious crowding in many situations, including
on public transport. Night curfews are weakly enforced. This is
worrying, considering the limited medical capacity that exists to care
for a large number who might suffer the worst effects of COVID-19.
Getting unlocking wrong could mean an explosion of cases, which, WHO has
warned, remains a possibility in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
National policy should not put the cart before the horse, by
prioritising activities such as worship at public places. All available
resources must be devoted towards productive and essential work. The
Centre has to also explain what it is doing to assess the prevalence of
infection at the community-level at a suitable scale, which is crucial
to identify focus areas and decide the course of further unlock phases.
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